EU Golden Visa Program SWOT Analysis
For people considering an EU Golden Visa as a pure “Plan B” – as insurance against risks in their home countries – choosing the right program can be quite daunting. With a view to provide a more holistic picture of each program pros and cons, we take a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for each of the programs as we approach 2025 below…
Portugal Golden Visa SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
- Only real road to citizenship without much time spent in-country (provided you have the patience to deal with processing delays of up to 36 months+).
- Fastest road to citizenship (5 years vs 8+ years).
- Proven track record of GV residents getting citizenship.
- The country offers a high quality, low cost of living.
- Legacy brand recognition and association with the country.
- Dual citizenship is recognized by Portugal.
- Children born to parents holding legal residency for one year or longer in Portugal can become Portuguese citizens at birth.
- Golden Visa residents can take up local employment in Portugal.
WEAKNESSES
- Government’s 2023 erratic mishandling of program changes damaged program reputation and undermined investor trusts.
- Removal of NHR tax benefits greatly reduces the appeal of the program – for foreign retirees, in particular.
- Processing delays and dysfunctional SEF/AIMA effectively paralyzes the program – investors can’t get residency permits.
- Removal of a real estate option – which is what 99% of investors want – undermined the program’s popularity (and it won’t fix the housing stock shortage).
- The only de facto option now is the €500K Fund – which is double that of most other programs’ entry price point.
- THE most expensive residency issuance and renewal fees of all the mainstream Golden Visas.
OPPORTUNITIES
- Portuguese tourism is booming, with demand outstripping supply in the coming years.
- Use Cultural Golden Visa to direct resources and capital to develop central Portugal.
- Reintroduce a rural, Real Estate Golden Visa priced at €250K ( hospitality projects only).
- Use the newly announced Social Golden Visa to facilitate the faster, more effective integration of immigrants into the country.
- The Golden Visa program can be a money printing machine. Fix AIMA and create an express concierge to deal with GV processing backlog to improve program predictability and reputation to boost through-put.
- Golden Visa investment could be used to address the housing shortage by create a low-cost housing category.
THREATS
- More politicking and announcements of legally unenforceable program changes, which need to be backtracked on, could further harm the program’s reputation.
- The AIMA processing backlog continues to hurt the program’s appeal and reputation.
- With Cyprus set to drop its price to €250K, Greece retaining €250K as its minimum price, and Hungary entering the market in 2 months’ time with a €250K Real Estate Fund option, Portugal is going to keep on losing market share in 2024 – unless they can bring to market a compelling €250K investment option – which ISN’T a donation…
To find out more about the Portuguese Golden Visa going into 2025, click here.
Spain Golden Visa SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
- Top-tier country brand – justifies higher program price point.
- Fast, consistent and predictable visa processing.
- Residential AND commercial Real Estate option, plus located anywhere in the country.
- Russians applicants with funds outside of Russia are accepted.
- A very stable program (until the recent announcement of the program getting terminated).
WEAKNESSES
- Highest minimum entry price point €500K.
- No easy tax relief for those spending more than 6 months per year in Spain (unless you’re employed in Spain).
- High transfer taxes and ancillary costs on residential property purchases – add 11%+ to the price.
- 10-year road to citizenship – unless you’re from an Ibero-American country, in which case it’s 2 years.
- Dual citizenship NOT recognized (unless you’re from an Ibero-American country).
OPPORTUNITIES
- Keeping the program open would still the country’s real estate sector benefiting from foreign direct investment, with additional spend flowing into other parts of the Spanish economy.
THREATS
- The key threat to the Spanish Golden Visa program is that the government may follow through with their decision to shutter the program. However, legislative processes take a long time in Spain, so unless an executive order is issued to terminate the program, it will still be available going into 2025…
To find out more about the Spanish Golden Visa going into 2025, click here.
Greece Golden Visa SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
- Highly respected, popular program – top-selling GV in 2023/2024.
- Low cost of living and great value-for-money real estate options.
- Lowest real estate pricing on freehold property of all the programs.
- Residential AND commercial real estate option, situated anywhere in the country (however a tiered pricing system, based on type and location, was recently introduced).
- Affordable permit issuance and renewal fees.
- Residency permits valid for 5 years from the get-go.
WEAKNESSES
- Not really a viable road to citizenship (given language requirements and need for long in-country stays).
- Greek property outside of Athens and Thessaloniki can be a value trap.
- Yields on properties located out of the big cities, Mykonos and Santorini tend to be inferior.
- New €250K Conversion Real Estate option will be more restrictive.
- Ensuring ongoing compliance with the new property usage rules may be challenging.
OPPORTUNITIES
- Developing compelling offerings under the new €250K Commercial Property > Residential Conversion track could help alleviate housing shortages
- Preventing new Golden Visa properties from being used as short-term rentals should help ease the pricing pressure in the long-term rental market.
THREATS
- Hungary’s incoming €250K Real Estate Fund option looks set to be faster, with 10-year residency permit validity, and the investment is a lot more liquid. The Hungarian fund price point is also half of Greece’s new bank deposit option (set at €500K).
- Cyprus dropping its own Real Estate offer to €250K for residential property could take market share away from Greece.
To find out more about the Greek Golden Visa going into 2025, click here.
Hungary Golden Visa SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS
- Joint-cheapest program – price at only €250K for the Real Estate Fund Investment option.
- Set to be THE fastest program in the world, with a legally mandated approval turnaround time of just 3 weeks.
- Hungary has a history of treating their €300K Hungarian Bond Golden Visa investors well – whereas after the various dramas of 2023, Portugal does not.
- Hungary looks set to accept Russians, and they have been a key source market for Golden Visa investors in recent year.
- Hungary is massively popular among Chinese nationals, and they are THE source market for Golden Visa investors.
- 10-Year residency permit validity, vs a max of 5 years in Greece, and 2 or 3 years in Portugal.
WEAKNESSES
- New and unproven program – but presented by a country with a great Golden Visa track record.
- Difficult path to citizenship after 8+ years – the Hungarian language is exceptionally hard to learn, and basic proficiency is a requirement.
- Hungary is more insular, culturally speaking, than most other EU Golden Visa countries.
- No information regarding eligible investments have been made available (yet), however the program’s fund option is expected to start processing applications as of early August, 2024.
OPPORTUNITIES
- Steal significant market share from Portugal and Greece (especially from Russians and Chinese applicants).
- Take over all of the demand that would have gone to Spain’s program, should this program actually get terminated…
- This program launching, despite pressure from Brussels, may prompt more countries to launch (and benefit from) Golden Visa programs.
THREATS
- The key threat to the Spanish Golden Visa program is that the government may follow through with their decision to shutter the program. However, legislative processes take a long time in Spain, so unless an executive order is issued to terminate the program, it will still be available going into 2025…
To find out more about the new Hungarian Guest Investor Visa program going into 2025, click here.
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Golden Visa SWOT Analysis For 2025 Compiled By…
Andre Bothma
Author
Born in Cape Town, South Africa, Andre is a seasoned digital entrepreneur with extensive experience working in the demand-side of the Residency and Citizenship By Investment industry. He has been writing about Golden Visas, Citizenship By Investment and investment migration programs for over six years, and has frequently written and been interviewed by industry-leading RCBI publication, IMIDaily.com. Andre is a D7 Visa holder and Portuguese resident himself. Having identified a gap in the market for affordable European immigration solutions outside of Golden Visas, he launched D7 Visa to help more foreign individuals and families settle in Europe without the need for property investment. Andre is a regular contributor to the pages of Sovereign Man, a leading international diversification publication catering to a global audience. He is also one of the earliest global promoters of the HQA Visa Program and the Cultural Golden Visa program (Portugal) as well as the Hungarian Golden Visa. Andre spends half his time in Porto, Portugal.